The Best NFL Bets of Week 17

Somehow, we egregiously did not publish our picks for Week 16. We’ll blame it on the holidays messing up our schedule, but let the record show that we did make selections. Cap went 2-1 taking the Bills (+6.5), Dolphins (-1), and Packers (+4.5) while Chopz went 1-2 picking the Ravens (-10), Bills (+6.5), and Vikings (-4.5). 

Now, heading into the final week of the regular season, as we both look to cross the finish line in the red, we have to be careful. Because the profittability of the regular season’s final Sunday can often be traced back to motivation. Some teams have everything to play while others are protecting starters while others are a measly 60 minutes away from ending a long, miserable season and they can’t wait to haul ass to the beach.

Handicapping against movitation is always tricky. The Packers have everything to play for against the Lions Sunday. Despite being out of the playoff hunt for weeks now, why wouldn’t Detroit relish the role of spoiler against a division rival and ruin Green Bay’s chances of securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC? I mean, it’s kind of tough to turn down 10 points in a division game. How motivated is Miami going to be up in New England in the cold weather against a team that kicked its ass earlier this season and that’s still fighting for positioning in the AFC? Is Pittsburgh a lock because its playing a Ravens squad that’s resting its star quarterback Lamar Jackson? Is anyone going to be motivated to do anything in the Bengals-Browns matchup? 

There are no easy answers here. Do some research, read a few fortune cookies, and tread carefully in Week 17 so you can party like a baller on New Year’s instead of a pauper. 

Season records:

Cap: 26-21-1

Chopz: 24-22-2

Week 17

Cap 

Jets (+1.5) at Bills

New York’s been playing respectable football during the second half of the season and with the Bills locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC, you have to wonder about motivation and how much the starters are going to play. Would’ve preferred getting this at 4.5 when it opened, but I’m still ok taking the Jets. 

Falcons (PK) at Buccaneers 

Atlanta’s been hot down the stretch. The Falcons are on a three-game winning streak and are 6-2 against the spread over the last eight games. And Jameis is probably good for two or three back-breaking picks, right? 

Seahawks (+3.5) vs. 49ers

A whopping 75 percent of the bets and 83 percent of the money have come in on the 49ers and when I see numbers skewed so heavily to one side alarm bells go off. GO. THE. OTHER. WAY. I’ll take the home team getting a field goal and the hook in a division matchup with a ton riding on it. 

Chopz

Eagles (-4) at Giants

With the playoffs on the line, I think the Eagles come out and put up big numbers against the Giants. 

Seahawks (+3.5) vs. 49ers 

Like Adam, I am all over this line. I think Seattle wins at home and locks up the division with the return of Marshawn Lynch. 

Jets (+1.5) at Bills

The Bills playoff position is locked and it sounds like they’re about to rest their guys. With that in mind, give me the Jets as the underdogs here.